Projecting the NFL playoff picture: Updated chances to clinch, tight races to watch

We’re tracking close playoff hunts in both conferences. Who is in — or out — based on ESPN’s current projections?…

Playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics’ live win probabilities and its NFL Football Power Index projections.

Live in-game win probabilities measure multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team/opponent strength and game site.

These live probabilities are used by FPI season projections, which simulate the season based on each team’s strength, schedule and tiebreaking rules.

The result is a live representation of a team’s various playoff, division and seed chances, along with an updated projection of the final standings.

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