Fantasy intel for all 32 NFL teams ahead of Week 4
From Baker’s slow start to Zeke’s lack of receptions, Mike Clay has the info you need to make fantasy football decisions…
Mike ClayESPN Writer
The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league’s 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Note that data from Monday Night Football may not immediately be reflected in charts.
Opportunity alert
Throughout the below team-by-team rundowns, I’ll be referencing “OFP” and “OTD.” OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player’s opportunity to score fantasy points, or his “expected” fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league-average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. FORP is the difference between a player’s actual fantasy point total and his OFP. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it’s touchdowns. Volume is king in fantasy football, so this is not information you want to overlook.
That said, here is the post-Week 3 OFP Leaderboard:
Next, here are the players who exceeded their OFP by the largest margin this past week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward, assuming they see a similar workload:
And these players who fell short of their OFP by the largest margin last week and thus you shouldn’t be too quick to overreact to their performance when making lineup, trade or waiver decisions:
Team-by-team rundowns
If you’re looking for a wide receiver to target in a trade who might be a bit undervalued this week, Christian Kirk is a good place to start. The second-year receiver has been on the field for 88% of the Cardinals’ pass plays, is handling a team-high 24% target share and sits fourth among all wide receivers with 31 targets. The massive usage has allowed 20 receptions for 205 yards, but zero touchdowns. Kirk ranks 10th among wide receivers in OFP (48), but 28th in fantasy points (44). Kirk has posted back-to-back top-25 fantasy weeks, and there’s actually room for even more production. Kirk is a WR2.
Following a pair of down games against good Philadelphia and Minnesota fronts in Weeks 1 and 2, Devonta Freeman got back on track with 95 yards on 19 touches against Indianapolis. Freeman was on the field for a massive 49 of 54 snaps after splitting backfield duties with Ito Smith (left early with a concussion) during Weeks 1-2. On the negative side, Freeman has yet to score a touchdown this season, primarily because he’s carried the ball once inside the opponent’s 12-yard line (and even that one was from 7 yards out). The goal-line touches figure to come in a good Atlanta offense, but Freeman is best viewed as a midrange RB2.
Mark Ingram II scored three touchdowns in Kansas City on Sunday and is now up to five scores in three games this season. Ingram is obviously over his head, but his 3.0 OTD (second-highest in the NFL) and league-high five carries inside the opponent’s 5-yard line suggest he’s positioned well to be near the top of the running back position in touchdowns this season. Ingram’s minimal usage as a receiver (33 pass routes, six targets) remains a concern in PPR leagues, but his four targets in Week 3 offer some optimism in this category. Ingram will be a solid RB2 play as long as Baltimore keeps scoring points.
Rookie TE Dawson Knox burst onto the fantasy scene with three receptions, 67 yards and one touchdown on four targets on Sunday. The strong performance is a reminder that Knox belongs on dynasty rosters (he’s available in a ton of them), but the third-round pick won’t be a good TE1 option in the short term. Knox played only 58% of the snaps against Cincinnati and has run a route on 46% of the team’s pass plays this season, racking up 10 targets and five catches along the way.
If you were patient with Curtis Samuel following a disappointing Week 1, you’ve reaped the benefits the past two weeks. Samuel has registered 20 targets during the team’s past two games, managing the 22nd-most fantasy points at the position during that span (teammate DJ Moore is 21st). Samuel’s 54% catch rate may seem low, but it’s actually right at his expected rate because of a high 12.8 aDOT. Drops are a bit of a red flag (he has two), but Samuel shouldn’t have trouble sustaining a target share above 20%, which keeps him on the WR3 radar.
Taylor Gabriel scored three touchdowns on Monday Night Football, but you shouldn’t be in a rush to grab him off waivers this week. Same as last season, Gabriel is second on Chicago’s wide receiver depth chart, but primarily utilized as a situational playmaker. In fact, though his snaps are up from 78% to 84% this season, Gabriel’s target share has fallen from 19% to 14%. Gabriel has 14 touchdowns in 77 career games and, at 5-foot-7, 168 pounds, he simply won’t be a consistent producer in that department. Gabriel is an underrated NFL player, but not quite a flex option in 12-team PPR leagues.
Second-year WR Auden Tate took over for Damion Willis as the team’s replacement for A.J. Green on Sunday. Tate delivered the goods with a team-best 6-88-0 receiving line on 10 targets while playing 89% of the snaps. Despite the heavy usage, Tate actually played fewer snaps than Tyler Boyd (91%) and John Ross III (100%) and remains a clear third on the depth chart. With Green due back at some point this season, Tate should be rostered only in dynasty leagues.
Baker Mayfield has yet to post a weekly fantasy finish better than 18th, and his current position as fantasy’s No. 25-scoring quarterback is supported by his 19th-place ranking in OFP. Mayfield was an overrated fantasy pick during the offseason for two reasons: interceptions (he has five in three games) and a lack of rushing production (he has one carry). The thought was he might overcome that with big passing numbers, but instead, he’s been held to 805 passing yards, three touchdowns and an ugly 57% completion rate. Mayfield could turn it around, but he’s not a recommended play at Baltimore this week.
Ezekiel Elliott was held to two receptions for 14 yards Sunday and has yet to clear two receptions or 14 receiving yards in a single game this season. In fact, his total receiving line of 5-33-0 on seven targets extrapolates to 25-165-0 on 35 targets over 15 games, which is a massive reduction from his 77-567-3 line on 95 targets in 15 games last season. There is some hope here as Elliott has run a route on 54% of the team’s pass plays, which isn’t a massive dip from 61% last year. Especially with Dallas’ schedule about to get much tougher, Elliott’s targets figure to increase. He remains a strong RB1 despite his 11th-place ranking through Week 3.
Emmanuel Sanders crashed back to earth with a 2-10-0 receiving line against Green Bay on Sunday. Despite the rough day, there’s no reason to panic. Sanders played 79% of the offensive snaps and has been on the field for 111 of Denver’s 121 pass plays this season. Sanders ranks 14th at wide receiver in OFP and sits eighth in the entire league with a 2.3 OTD thanks, in part, to three end zone targets. Sanders remains a WR3 in Denver’s run-heavy offense, but should be downgraded against Jacksonville in Week 4.
After catching 6 of 9 targets for 131 yards and one touchdown in Week 1, T.J. Hockenson has totaled two receptions for 8 yards and zero scores on seven targets during his past two games. The rookie has been on the field for 71% of Detroit’s offensive snaps, and he’s run a route on 63% of 110 pass plays. Hockenson is safest as a strong TE2 right now, but he’s worth considering for your lineup this week against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the most targets and receptions to tight ends so far in 2019.
The Packers promised more Jamaal Williams moving forward, and they delivered on that in Week 3. Williams was what some might describe as the “hot hand,” rushing for 59 yards on 12 carries and adding two catches for 27 yards on two targets. Aaron Jones scored two touchdowns but was limited to 19 yards on 10 carries and caught his only target for 4 yards. Most concerning for Jones was a snap split that saw him on the field for 38% of the snaps, compared to 62% for Williams. Jones, who sits 17th at running back in OFP, remains the preferred RB2 option, whereas Williams (38th) is a weak flex despite the strong Week 3.
Jordan Akins came out of nowhere to put up 73 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Chargers on Sunday. Is Akins the answer to your tight end woes? Probably not. Akins saw a decent number of targets (five) but was on the field for only 46% of the snaps. Akins played 63% of the snaps during Weeks 1-2, but totaled three catches, 42 yards and no touchdowns on five targets. Akins — a 2018 third-round pick — remains a good dynasty stash but should only be considered as a TE3 for the time being.
The Colts have scored nine offensive touchdowns in three games, but Eric Ebron has been on the receiving end of only one of them. With Jacoby Brissett under center and Jack Doyle back in the fold, Ebron has yet to clear four targets or 47 yards in a single game. Ebron, who found the end zone 14 times and led the entire league in end zone targets (20) last season, currently sits 16th at the position with a 0.9 OTD and has seen one end zone target in 2019. Ebron has predictably settled in as a low-volume, touchdown-dependent back-end TE2.
Gardner Minshew II has been a pleasant surprise as Jacksonville’s starting quarterback, but he’s not quite on the QB1 radar just yet. Minshew has finished just outside the top 14 quarterbacks in fantasy points each week, and his 43 OFP ranks 20th among quarterbacks. Minshew is providing some value with his legs (80 rushing yards) and good passing efficiency (74% completion rate, 7.9 YPA), but his conservative 6.5 aDOT and lack of scoring (the Jaguars have six offensive touchdowns in three games) has limited his fantasy output. Minshew should be in lineups only in 2QB leagues unless the matchup is sterling.
With Damien Williams out on Sunday, Darrel Williams led the Chiefs’ running backs in snaps (34), with LeSean McCoy (24) and Darwin Thompson (five) also mixed in. Williams was the most effective back, putting up 109 yards on 14 touches, but McCoy (11 touches, 80 yards) was the more productive fantasy back, thanks to two touchdowns. Williams’ touches were inflated a bit by McCoy re-aggravating his ankle in the fourth quarter, but this was clearly a two-headed attack. If Damien Williams misses more time, McCoy is the preferred flex play, with Darrel Williams a weak flex in 12-team leagues.
Mike Williams‘ first-season as a clear-cut starter is off to a slow start — 15 targets, eight receptions, 157 yards, zero touchdowns — but you shouldn’t panic just yet. A knee injury suffered in Week 1 limited the third-year receiver to playing roughly half the snaps during the Chargers’ first two games, but Williams was on the field for 94% of the snaps on Sunday. The stats weren’t great (3-45-0), but he was targeted a healthy seven times. Williams, who scored 10 touchdowns last season, has already handled three end zone targets in 2019. He hasn’t scored, but his 1.7 OTD is 10th highest among wideouts. In fact, the 1.7 gap between his actual and expected touchdown total is the largest in the league. Williams currently sits 59th in fantasy points, so he’s a good player to try and trade for, especially with Miami on the docket in Week 4.
Adjust your mindset: Cooper Kupp is a top-10 fantasy wide receiver. Kupp, who was producing top-10 numbers when healthy last season, is at it again and then some in 2019. Los Angeles’ slot man is handling a massive 33% target share, which has allowed him the sixth-most fantasy points among wide receivers. It’s legit production, as Kupp sits fourth among receivers in OFP and 13th in OTD (1.5). This isn’t a “sell high” situation, as Kupp is a legit back-end WR1 play against the Buccaneers in Week 4 and will be in the WR1 discussion every week moving forward.
The Dolphins’ offense was better (granted it was a low bar) with Josh Rosen under center on Sunday, and that allowed Kenyan Drake to get his season pointed in the right direction. Drake was on the field for a generous 65% of the offensive snaps, handling 13 of the team’s 20 carries by running backs, while also adding three catches for 34 yards on six targets. Kalen Ballage (34% of snaps), meanwhile, continued to struggle, managing 11 yards on seven carries and 10 yards on three targets. Drake ranks 28th at running back in OFP, and Week 3 offered some signs of life, but it will be hard to start anyone in this Dolphins’ offense until they start scoring points.
Stefon Diggs had a great matchup on Sunday and was still held to three catches for 15 yards. He has six receptions for 101 yards in three games this season after managing only 106 yards in three games once Kevin Stefanski was promoted to offensive coordinator last season. Minnesota is operating the league’s run-heaviest offense (game-script-adjusted 17 percentage points below expected), and that has obviously been a major problem for Diggs’ statistical production. Diggs currently sits 60th among wideouts in OFP (Adam Thielen is 56th) despite a decent 21% target share. Diggs figures to be better when Minnesota is in more competitive games, but he’s a shaky WR3 right now and has a very tough matchup with the Bears up next.
Antonio Brown is a thing of the past in New England, which is good news for the fantasy prospects of the team’s other wide receivers. That was on full display Sunday when Julian Edelman posted a 7-61-1 line on 10 targets despite missing the second half, Josh Gordon went for 6-83-0 on 11 targets and Phillip Dorsett managed a 6-53-1 line on seven targets. Could it be possible for this team to support three fantasy starters at wide receiver? Probably not, especially considering James White was out in Week 3, but it’s certainly possible if the Patriots continue to roll with a pass-heavy offense. Dorsett, by the way, has been way over his head, as he ranks 17th at wide receiver in fantasy points, but 57th in OFP. Touchdowns are the primary culprit, as his 0.6 OTD doesn’t quite align with his three scores. Dorsett will need to offset regression in those areas with a boost in target volume.
Jared Cook has been limited to five catches for 69 yards and zero touchdowns on 12 targets during three games with the Saints. It’s obviously a substantial drop in per-game production, since Cook posted a 68-896-6 line on 101 targets in Oakland last season. Cook has been on the field for 73% of the offensive snaps, but ranks 20th in OFP among tight ends. Cook may rebound once Drew Brees is healthy, but that’s a month or so away. He’s a TE2 right now.
Saquon Barkley went down with an ankle sprain on Sunday and will be out four to six weeks, per reports. Wayne Gallman is the next man up, as we saw on Sunday when he was on the field for 62% of the Giants’ snaps. New York will certainly add another back (FB Elijah Penny is the only other back on the active roster), but Gallman is likely to play a substantial role against Washington in Week 4 and beyond. Gallman made some noise as a rookie in 2017 when he averaged 4.3 YPC on 111 attempts while adding 34 catches along the way. Though he touched the ball only five times in a bad game script on Sunday, Gallman will be on the flex radar in a rejuvenated, Daniel Jones-led offense.
There’s not much to say about a Jets offense that has scored two fewer touchdowns than its defense (three to one) this season, but the good news is that there may be light at the end of the tunnel. New York is headed to its bye week and could return with a healthy Sam Darnold and Demaryius Thomas. Additionally, second-year TE Chris Herndon is due back from suspension in Week 5. Herndon was extremely effective as a rookie, averaging 9.0 yards per target, which is the fifth-best mark by a rookie tight end since 2007. If you’re desperate at tight end, Herndon isn’t a bad player to grab for your bench now.
J.J. Nelson was promoted to No. 2 on the wide receiver depth chart in Week 3 and came through with four catches for 36 yards and one touchdown on five targets. Nelson was on the field for 78% of the snaps, which was behind only Tyrell Williams (97%) among the team’s receivers. Nelson’s deep speed could lead to the occasional long touchdown, but he’s a long shot for consistent fantasy production. Only consider adding him in deep leagues.
With both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery sidelined on Sunday, Nelson Agholor was on the field for 68 of 69 offensive snaps and delivered eight catches, 50 yards and a pair of scores on 12 targets. Mack Hollins (68 snaps, seven targets) and JJ Arcega-Whiteside (49, 3) were both involved, as well. Jeffery is expected back on Thursday but will be a shaky play against a surging Packers defense, which includes second-year corner Jaire Alexander. Both Jeffery and Agholor should be considered flex options, at best.
The Steelers deactivated Donte Moncrief on Sunday and instead went young at wide receiver. The snaps were as follows: JuJu Smith-Schuster (100%), James Washington (92%), Diontae Johnson (80%), Johnny Holton (10%), Ryan Switzer (0%). Mason Rudolph underwhelmed a bit and attempted only 27 passes, so the box score didn’t look too pretty outside of a pair of splash plays (long touchdowns to Smith-Schuster and Johnson). Smith-Schuster has managed seven-plus targets and at least 78 yards in all three games this season and remains a borderline WR1. Johnson (seven targets on Sunday) is your next best option, but he should be on benches. Washington is no more than an end-of-bench stash right now.
With Tevin Coleman out the past two weeks, the 49ers’ backfield snaps have been split as follows: Raheem Mostert (38% of snaps), Matt Breida (35%), Jeff Wilson Jr. (23%). Breida (5.5 YPC, 1.4 YAC this season) held a slight edge in snaps and carries in Week 3, but Mostert (5.9 YPC, 2.1 YAC) has been effective enough that he figures to maintain a big role. Breida remains the preferred play here, but he is no more than a flex with Mostert playing so well and Wilson, who is tied for the lead league in carries inside the 5-yard line (five), stealing goal-line work.
Following a quiet Week 1 (two targets, one catch, 12 yards), Will Dissly posted a 5-50-2 line in Week 2 on five targets before managing a 6-62-1 line on seven targets in Week 3. Dissly’s Week 3 numbers were certainly inflated by a rare 50-pass-attempt day from Russell Wilson (not to mention the touchdown was in garbage time as the clock expired), but it’s hard to ignore the production from a player who was posting TE1 numbers prior to a Week 4 injury last season. The big concern for Dissly is playing time, as he’s been limited to 55% of the snaps while running a route on 45% of Seattle’s pass plays. Dissly, who is tied for third at tight end with three end zone targets, is best-viewed as a mid-range TE2.
If you didn’t trade for Mike Evans while his value was way down last week, consider the window to make a move closed and sealed. Tampa Bay seemed to make it a point to force-feed the ball to Evans on Sunday, targeting him 15 times. Evans didn’t disappoint, exploding for eight catches, 190 yards and three scores. Evans now sits second among wide receivers in OFP, thanks primarily to his league lead in both OTD (3.1) and end zone targets (four). Evans is a fringe WR1 against a good Rams’ defense this week.
Granted, a chunk of his production came in garbage time, but Adam Humphries finally played a big offensive role in Week 3. Humphries was on the field for 38 of 49 pass plays and posted a 6-93-0 receiving line on nine targets. Corey Davis (36 routes), A.J. Brown (29) and Tajae Sharpe (20) were also heavily involved as the Titans continue to rotate four receivers. Humphries is fine to add back to your bench, but we’ll need to see him lock in a consistent role before he can be considered for the top-40 discussion.
Believe it or not, Chris Thompson currently sits 16th at running back at fantasy points. Thompson has been a non-factor as a rusher (12 carries, 42 yards) but continues to crush it as a receiver (16-195-0 on 23 targets). Thompson has played 54% of the snaps this season and that usage figures to continue as long as Washington is trailing in games and Derrius Guice is sidelined. Consider Thompson a flex option against the Giants this week.
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