Fantasy intel for all 32 NFL teams ahead of Week 7
From Stefon Diggs to Tyreek Hill, Mike Clay has the info you need to make fantasy football decisions for Week 7….
Mike ClayESPN Writer
The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league’s 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Note that data from Monday Night Football may not immediately be reflected in charts.
Opportunity alert
Throughout the team-by-team rundowns below, I’ll be referencing “OFP” and “OTD.” OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equally. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player’s opportunity to score fantasy points, or his “expected” fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. FORP is the difference between a player’s actual fantasy point total and his OFP. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it’s touchdowns. Volume is king in fantasy football, so this is not information you want to overlook.
That said, here is the post-Week 6 OFP leaderboard:
Next, here are the players who exceeded their OFP by the largest margin this past week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward, assuming they see a similar workload:
And these are the players who fell short of their OFP by the largest margin last week and thus you shouldn’t be too quick to overreact to their performance when making lineup, trade or waiver decisions:
Team-by-team rundowns
Chase Edmonds racked up season-high marks in yards (86) and touches (11) on Sunday but was on the field for only 29% of Arizona’s offensive snaps. Edmonds entered the week having played 23% of the snaps and had posted four consecutive weekly fantasy finishes outside the top 50 prior to a pair of top 20s the past two weeks. Granted, Edmonds’ role has increased in recent games and he’s scored in back-to-back outings, but his usage is still too low for him to be in the consistent flex conversation. Edmonds belongs on rosters, however, as he’d be a top-15 fantasy back in the event of a David Johnson injury.
The Falcons are 1-5 and struggling badly on the defensive side of the ball, but that has set up Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense for a ton of fantasy production. In Sunday’s loss, Ryan was outstanding, completing 30 of 36 passes for 356 yards and four touchdowns. Ryan hasn’t finished a week worse than 16th in fantasy points, has four top-10 weeks under his belt and has been top-two in each of the past two weeks. Devonta Freeman (three straight top-14 fantasy weeks), Julio Jones (WR7 on the season), Calvin Ridley (WR19 on the season) and Austin Hooper (top-scoring fantasy TE by 19 points) should all be locked into lineups.
With Marquise Brown sidelined, the Ravens WR snaps were as follows on Sunday: Willie Snead 50, Miles Boykin 42, Chris Moore 36, Seth Roberts 32. Even though Lamar Jackson attempted 33 passes in the game, Boykin paced the unit in receiving yards with just 28, and Snead was the top wideout in targets with five. The four receivers have combined for two top-30 weekly fantasy finishes this season. Needless to say, none of these players should be close to lineups going forward, especially once Brown returns.
If you’re looking for quarterback help in Week 7, Josh Allen is your guy. Fresh off a bye, Buffalo will host the struggling Dolphins this week. Allen hasn’t been a spectacular fantasy option thus far (one weekly finish better than 14th), but Miami allowed four straight top-nine fantasy weeks to quarterbacks prior to “limiting” Case Keenum to 166 yards and two touchdowns on 25 attempts in Week 6. Allen has struggled with turnovers (seven INTs, five fumbles) but entered Week 6 no lower than third among quarterbacks in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He’s a midrange QB1 this week.
Curtis Samuel scored a pair of touchdowns in Week 6 after totaling one during his first five games. Samuel’s usage suggested he was on the verge of a better performance after a pair of weekly finishes outside the top 50 wide receivers. Leading into Week 6, Samuel had been on the field for 90% of Carolina’s snaps and reached six targets in four consecutive games. Samuel, who also has five carries to his name, is 25th at wide receiver in fantasy points and 19th in OFP. He’ll have weekly WR3 value as long as his 21% target share keeps up.
What to do with David Montgomery? The volume has been there for the rookie, as he entered Week 6 ranked 18th among running backs in OFP. However, the production has not, as he entered the week 28th in fantasy points. Montgomery has handled 62% of Chicago’s carries and 10% of the targets since a promotion in Week 2. He’s averaging 3.3 YPC (1.2 YAC) and 5.5 yards per target. It can be tough to chase volume when the efficiency isn’t there, but if Montgomery continues to play such a significant role, the points will come. Consider him a flex option with RB2 upside.
Is Auden Tate the real deal? He might be. The 2018 seventh-round pick has handled six-plus targets in four consecutive games, managing at least 50 yards or one touchdown during all four outings. That includes a Week 6 showing in which he posted a 5-91-0 receiving line on 12 targets. Tate is handling a 23% target share and sits 27th among wide receivers in fantasy points during the span. Tate will remain a flex option in 12-team leagues, at least until A.J. Green returns. Make sure the 6-foot-5 Tate, 22, is rostered in your dynasty league.
We need to check back in on Ricky Seals-Jones after the tight end saw a big boost in playing time in Week 6. After playing no more than 30% of the snaps in a single game during Weeks 1-5, Seals-Jones jumped to 67% against Seattle. The converted wide receiver posted a 3-47-1 receiving line on six targets. Seals-Jones will be risky in a Cleveland offense that has yet to reach two passing touchdowns in a single game this season (only Miami can say the same), but if his Week 6 usage carries over, he’ll have value in leagues that start two tight ends. Don’t scramble to grab him off waivers with Cleveland headed to a bye.
With Randall Cobb out and Amari Cooper limited to three snaps due to injury on Sunday, it was old friend Tavon Austin who saw the biggest boost in workload. Austin was on the field for 92% of the snaps and posted a 5-64-0 receiving line on six targets. It was Austin’s highest snap share since he played 93% of the Rams’ offensive snaps in Week 1 of the 2016 season. Michael Gallup (96%), Cedrick Wilson (59%) and Ventell Bryant (3%) were also involved. If Cooper and Cobb miss Week 7, Austin will man the slot with Wilson on the perimeter opposite Gallup. The two replacement receivers would, in turn, be very interesting sleepers against an Eagles pass defense that has allowed 11 touchdowns and the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Rookie TE Noah Fant has run a pass route on a hefty 67% of the Broncos’ pass plays this season, but it simply hasn’t led to much target volume. Fant is averaging 3.2 targets per game and has yet to clear four in a single game. As a result, Fant hasn’t cleared 37 yards in a game or finished a week better than 15th at the position in fantasy points. Fant’s heavy usage could quickly turn into consistent fantasy production at some point later this season, but for now, he’s no more than a low-floor TE2.
Detroit Lions — TBD
Green Bay Packers — TBD
Carlos Hyde enjoyed his best game with the Texans on Sunday, racking up 130 yards and a touchdown on 27 touches. Hyde continues to contribute very little as a receiver (he has more than one target in one game) but has handled the bulk of the carries (ranks 10th in the league with 99) and has scored three touchdowns thanks to six carries inside the 5-yard line (third most). Hyde sits 22nd among backs in fantasy points and 17th in OFP, which suggests he could be even better moving forward. The hefty rushing volume and minimal receiving work positions Hyde as a weekly flex with additional value in non-PPR.
Tight ends Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron have combined for one top-10 fantasy week this season, and even that was only a ninth by Ebron in Week 2. Doyle has been on the field for a hefty 71% of the offensive snaps but has run only 92 of a possible 173 routes and has been targeted 20 times. Ebron has played only 41% of the snaps, managing 20 targets on 83 routes. Ebron (1.5 OTD) has seen more work near the goal line than Doyle (1.1), so he’s the slightly preferred fantasy option, but both are nothing more than fringe top-20 options.
Dede Westbrook has racked up 46 targets in six games this season but has cleared 53 receiving yards only twice and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. Volume hasn’t been an issue for the third-year receiver, as he’s enjoying a career-high 23% target share, which includes 8.75 targets per game since Week 3. Efficiency has been the problem, as he’s caught only 57% of his targets despite an extremely low 6.7 aDOT. Westbrook has managed four top-36 fantasy weeks already this season, and there’s room for more (he’s WR23 in OFP) if his efficiency improves. Consider Westbrook a solid flex.
Tyreek Hill was a risky Week 6 fantasy play, as he entered the game questionable after missing all but a few snaps back in Week 1. If you took the risk, well done. Despite playing only 57% of the offensive snaps, Hill was targeted 10 times and posted a 5-80-2 receiving line. Hill’s playing time will only increase as he gets close to 100% health, so there’s not much else that needs to be said here other than that the reigning No. 1-scoring fantasy wide receiver is right back in the high-WR1 mix.
Hunter Henry returned to action in Week 6 and was on the field for 68% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps, running a route on 78% of the pass plays. The oft-injured big man was one of the only effective players in the game, posting an 8-100-2 receiving line on nine targets. Despite missing four games, Henry is already up to 17th among tight ends in fantasy points, which says a lot about the state of the position. Henry appears to be back to his old self, which locks him in as an every-week TE1. Start him against the Titans in Week 7.
With Todd Gurley sidelined on Sunday, Malcolm Brown played 66% of the offensive snaps and rookie Darrell Henderson handled 34%. Brown ran for 40 yards on 11 carries and wasn’t targeted. Henderson produced 39 yards on six carries and caught one of his two targets for 9 yards. It was a brutal day for the Rams’ offense against a 49ers defense that has been nothing short of elite so far. If Gurley misses more time, Brown will still be a top-20 fantasy play against Atlanta this week, with Henderson more of a desperation flex.
The Dolphins made a backfield adjustment off their Week 5 bye, promoting Mark Walton to starter. Though the 2018 fourth-round pick played a big role early, he ended up on the field for only 38% of the offensive snaps. That’s compared to 64% for Kenyan Drake and 6% for demoted Kalen Ballage. Walton was effective (6-32-0 rushing, 5-43-0 receiving), but the limited role and Miami’s horrific offense keeps him well off the flex radar. Add Walton only in deep and dynasty leagues.
Stefon Diggs exploded for a 7-167-3 receiving line on 11 targets against the Eagles on Sunday. Is he back on track as a weekly fantasy play? Probably not. Diggs’ big day was predictable against an Eagles defense allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. The 25-year-old entered the week with a 7-108-0 showing against Chicago in Week 4, but fewer than 50 yards and zero touchdowns in his other four games. Despite the big day for Diggs, Kirk Cousins attempted only 29 passes, compared to 35 team rushing attempts. This remains a very run-heavy offense that won’t have the advantage of facing two of the worst pass defenses in the league as they have the past two weeks (Giants, Eagles). Diggs should be on the trade block off the big game this week and will be a boom/bust flex against Detroit in Week 7.
Sony Michel failed to find the end zone against the Giants in Week 6, but his usage provides optimism for his future prospects. Michel racked up 22 carries and was targeted three times. After averaging 3.5 pass routes and 0.75 targets per game during his first 20 NFL games, Michel has totaled 30 routes and six targets during his past two outings. Michel is averaging 16.7 carries per game this season and sits 27th among backs in fantasy points (22nd in OFP). If Michel continues to handle the bulk of the carries and adds a few targets per game to the mix, he has an excellent chance to provide RB2 numbers moving forward.
Teddy Bridgewater threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns against Tampa Bay in Week 5 but has otherwise been a poor fantasy option, managing only one weekly finish better than 16th. Drew Brees’ replacement totaled three touchdowns and failed to clear 240 yards in his other four outings. In fact, the Saints’ offense is averaging only 1.83 touchdowns per game, which is ninth lowest in the league. Needless to say, Bridgewater shouldn’t be in lineups against Chicago’s elite defense in Week 7.
Daniel Jones was fantasy’s No. 2-scoring quarterback during his first NFL start back in Week 3 but has since posted finishes of 19th, 21st and 22nd. Facing tough Minnesota and New England defenses the past two weeks has been a big culprit, as have injuries to top targets Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard. Better days are ahead for Jones, and that starts this week. Jones will be a fine streaming option with Barkley and perhaps Engram back for a home game against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Sam Darnold was back in Week 6, and the second-year passer injected some life into the passing game. In fact, each of the team’s top three wide receivers reached at least 62 receiving yards in the game (Robby Anderson 5-125-1, Jamison Crowder 6-98-0, Demaryius Thomas 4-62-0). Anderson was a top-10 fantasy wide receiver over the final four games of 2018 with Darnold. Crowder has now posted target totals of 17 and nine and yardage totals of 99 and 98 in two games with Darnold this season. Thomas has 109 yards on 14 targets in two full games with the Jets. Anderson and Crowder are back in the weekly starter conversation and Thomas is a fine add to your bench. Life will be tougher against the Patriots next week, but the Jets have a light second-half schedule, so there’s fantasy potential from this group (along with Chris Herndon and Le’Veon Bell).
Derek Carr’s weekly fantasy finishes are as follows: 21-27-20-18-26. Carr entered the Week 6 bye eighth in the league in completions, but his extremely conservative 6.0 average depth of throw has allowed him only 6.9 yards per attempt. Carr has thrown six touchdowns (5.0 OTD) in five games and has added 27 yards with his legs. He’s currently one of the worst fantasy options among starting NFL quarterbacks.
Alshon Jeffery had his best game of the season on Sunday, posting a 10-76-1 receiving line on 12 targets against Minnesota. Jeffery has scored in three of his four games this season and has been targeted seven-plus times in all four affairs. Perpetually underrated Jeffery was fantasy’s No. 21 scoring receiver in 2017 (his first season with the Eagles), was 17th after returning from injury in Week 4 last season and has posted weekly finishes of 19th, 25th, 32nd and sixth so far this season. He’s a fringe WR2 every week.
With Jaylen Samuels out of action, James Conner played 50% of the snaps and rookie Benny Snell 48% during Sunday’s win over the Chargers. Conner racked up 16 carries and seven targets (nine pass routes), whereas Snell ran the ball 17 times and was targeted on one of eight pass routes. Though the usage is very similar, note that Snell handled eight straight carries to close out the game. If Samuels remains out following the Week 7 bye, Conner will remain a fringe RB1 play (he’s currently RB12 on the season), with Snell a shaky non-PPR flex.
Dante Pettis led 49ers wide receivers in snaps (54 of 75) and targets (six) in Week 6. Pettis also paced the unit in snaps in Week 5, so it’s fair to say he’s returned to the top of the depth chart. Despite the promotion, Pettis has recorded a total of 56 yards on four catches over the past two games. The 49ers’ run-heavy offense simply hasn’t allowed for much volume from its wide receivers, which has left all of them well off the fantasy radar. In fact, no 49ers wideouts current reside in the top 65 at the position this season. Youngsters Pettis and rookie Deebo Samuel are fine bench options, but neither can be started with confidence right now.
Back in 2014, 18.8% of the Seahawks targets were distributed to a tight end. That’s notable because it’s the lowest mark posted since Russell Wilson joined the team in 2012. The team average during the span is 21.7% and sat at 22.8% entering Week 6. This is all relevant because Will Dissly (Achilles) is done for the season and Luke Willson and Jacob Hollister are next on the depth chart. With Dissly leaving after 18 snaps on Sunday, Willson played 51 snaps (14 routes) and Hollister 25 (nine). Though Wilson’s history suggests both will chip in with a handful of targets each game, neither is likely to replace Dissly’s TE1 production. Consider them deep sleepers in two-tight-end formats.
Cameron Brate has found the end zone in two of his past three games, but the veteran tight end remains well off the TE1 radar. This is the usual for Brate, as he’s scored six-plus touchdowns in each of the past three seasons but simply hasn’t seen enough targets when Howard has been active. Brate has run a route on only 36% of Tampa Bay’s pass plays this season and is averaging 2.5 targets per game. Even with the two scores, Brate is fantasy’s No. 22 scoring tight end.
Ryan Tannehill replaced an ineffective Marcus Mariota on Sunday and injected a bit of life into the Titans’ offense. Tannehill completed 13 of 16 passes for 144 yards. Including plays wiped out by penalties, Tannehill’s target distribution was as follows: Corey Davis 4, AJ Brown 3, Adam Humphries 3, Dion Lewis 2, Delanie Walker 2, four others with one each. Tannehill has one career top-15 fantasy campaign to his name, and that was way back in 2014, so he’s unlikely to jump into the QB1 discussion, but perhaps he can inject some life into the team’s pass catchers. Walker, Davis, Brown and Humphries are fine bench/depth options.
Bill Callahan’s first game as Washington’s head coach was, as expected, the Adrian Peterson show. With the Redskins nursing a lead throughout most of the day, the team ran the ball 33 times and passed on 25 occasions. Peterson was on the field for 64% of the offensive snaps and carried the ball 23 times for 118 yards, adding 18 yards on a pair of targets. No other Redskins back touched the ball more than five times (Chris Thompson). Granted, Washington doesn’t figure to be ahead often the rest of the season and thus the touch distribution will be a bit different, but Washington appears set on establishing the run. That should allow Peterson enough volume for flex consideration most weeks. Upgrade him in non-PPR leagues.
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