Let’s overreact to Week 15: Everything is fine with the Patriots, right?
The New England offense is going to be just fine. Ryan Tannehill is going to get a big contract….
CINCINNATI — When this one was over, and they’d beaten the worst team in the league by 21 points, the Patriots got to enjoy a familiar feeling. Their victory over the 1-13 Bengals locked up a postseason berth, meaning the Patriots will participate in the NFL’s postseason for a staggeringly impressive 11th year in a row.
“We always give ourselves a chance, and because of that we have a chance next week to play for a [division] championship,” safety Devin McCourty said, looking ahead to Saturday’s home game against the second-place Bills. “That’s why you play, to put yourself in position to play these types of games.”
It hasn’t been a normal season for New England. Its offense has sputtered. Its defense has dominated. The Patriots have feasted on bad teams but gone a combined 0-3 against the other three first-place teams in the AFC. With the playoffs two weeks away, they remain in good position to secure their usual first-round bye. But that’s not yet assured, and given the way their passing game looks, neither is success in the weeks that would follow it.
So, this being an Overreaction Monday column, we thought we’d start with the defending champs, who continue to look wobbly even as more than two-thirds of the league’s teams would happily trade for their problems.
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The Patriots are going to be just fine
They intercepted Andy Dalton four times. They rushed for 175 yards on 32 carries. They didn’t turn the ball over. Tom Brady threw two touchdown passes. If you were looking for evidence that all was well with the Patriots, you could pick through Sunday’s box score and find it.
New England is 11-3 and a game ahead of the Bills in the AFC East. There was, as more than one player said after the game, plenty of good stuff to take away from this game.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Brady doesn’t look sharp. Julian Edelman doesn’t look healthy. The offensive line isn’t holding up, and receivers aren’t getting open quickly enough for Brady to beat the pressure with his customary rapid release.
These things are somewhat easy to hide when you’re playing a 1-13 team. But as the Patriots showed in their games against Baltimore, Houston and Kansas City — the teams they’ll need to beat if they want to get back to the Super Bowl for the fourth year in a row — they’re tougher to hide against the tougher competition.
The scoreboard made this look like a get-right game for the Patriots, but if you watched it, you saw a lot of the things that have been making you worry whether this passing game can get things together in time for January. Saturday against Buffalo offers another tough test from a tough, hungry defense. Check back Saturday night.
Urban Meyer will be the next coach in Washington
The former Ohio State coach, who has been connected via whispers and rumors to a potential opening in Dallas, was at Washington’s game against the Eagles on Sunday, sitting in the owner’s box. While there, he watched former Buckeyes quarterback Dwayne Haskins throw a 75-yard touchdown pass to former Buckeyes receiver Terry McLaurin and the home team nearly pull off the upset.
Could Meyer be trying to leverage Cowboys owner Jerry Jones into a bigger offer (assuming Jones changes coaches)? Could Washington owner Dan Snyder be putting on the hard sell the way he did once upon a time with Steve Spurrier, Mike Shanahan and others? The intrigue is thick.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Why not? Washington will have the least attractive of the coach openings this offseason, but somebody is going to take it. Given what we know of Snyder’s affinity for Haskins, you figure it’s going to have to be somebody who believes in the young quarterback.
We assume that Meyer, who recruited Haskins and coached him to great success in college, fits the description. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but how can you rule this out? Especially with him sitting right there???
Ryan Tannehill is going to get a contract extension from the Titans
The Titans lost their big divisional matchup against the Texans on Sunday, but Tannehill recovered from the tough first half to drag them right back into it at the end.
Tennessee is 6-2 since elevating Tannehill to the starting quarterback role, and in spite of Sunday’s loss it remains in contention for a playoff spot and potentially even a division title.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Titans are surely moving on from former first-round pick Marcus Mariota after five years. And while the free-agent quarterback market is going to be fascinating this offseason, Tannehill has played well enough to convince them the answer might already be in their building.
If you’re wondering what kind of deal Tannehill could get, industry insiders already are speculating that it could look like the one the Jaguars gave Nick Foles last offseason. That was $88 million for four years with $41.25 million fully guaranteed over the first couple of years. Of course, the Titans also have the option to franchise Tannehill if they really want to keep him in the building.
Who would have thought, when they acquired him from the Dolphins in March, that they might have replaced Mariota without even meaning to?
The Texans have locked up the AFC South
The flip side of Texans-Titans was the fact that Houston now holds a one-game lead on Tennessee with two games to play. It has been a wild few weeks for the Texans, who crushed the Patriots at home in Week 13 then laid an egg against the Broncos in Week 14. But they won the game they needed to win to keep themselves on top in the division, and they’re in the driver’s seat with two weeks to go.
They play in Tampa Bay next week while the Titans get the Saints at home, and then the two face off again in Houston in Week 17.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Of course, you’d rather have the Bucs than the Saints next week if you’re in this race. And if Houston wins, the Week 17 game won’t even matter, since its division record would give it the tiebreaker edge over Tennessee.
The Texans are the heavy favorite here, and their experience gives them an edge as they try to close it out. But I can’t shake that Broncos game from last week, in which they weren’t even competitive against a team they should have beaten. I can’t sit here and assume they’ll beat the Bucs.
I was in Nashville earlier this year when the Titans beat the Chiefs, so I can’t sit here and assume they have no chance against the Saints at home next week. There remains a very real chance the Week 17 game in Houston is a division title game, and Tennessee is playing as well as any team in the league, Sunday’s close loss notwithstanding.
The Cowboys are clearly the better team and will beat the Eagles next week to win the NFC East
Philly came back at the end to beat a division bottom-feeder for the second time in six days. Gutsy couple of efforts from Carson Wentz & Co., for sure, against the Giants and Washington, but these aren’t games that are supposed to be difficult for playoff teams.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, righted their ship with a dominant performance against what had been a hot Rams team, leaning on their tried-and-true run game to build a huge first-half lead.
The Eagles host the Cowboys on Sunday in a matchup of 7-7 teams tied for first place. If Dallas wins it, Week 17 won’t even matter, and the Cowboys would clinch their second straight division title.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Dallas should be the better team, given the relative health of both rosters at this point. And for all the grief the Cowboys have taken this season for underachieving, for bad losses and for unimpressive victories, you could say all of the same things about Philly, which entered the season with a ton of promise.
1:15
After Dallas snaps a three-game skid, Ryan Clark and Tim Hasselbeck believe the Cowboys will beat the Eagles to sit atop the NFC East.
This was supposed to be a close race, but both teams were supposed to be very good, and neither has been. Stack up the rosters right now, and it doesn’t look as if next week should even be close.
We can’t assume anything with either of these underachieving crews, but nothing the Eagles have done this season makes you feel very confident that they’ll take care of business in their biggest game of the year.
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