Brexit: What happens now?

The Supreme Court has ruled that the suspension of Parliament on 9 September was unlawful and void. MPs may now return to Westminster in the coming days.

A law designed to stop a no-deal Brexit on 31 October has been passed. If a deal is not agreed between the UK and EU by 19 October, and MPs don’t vote in favour of leaving with no deal, then the prime minister will be legally obliged to ask the EU for a Brexit delay.

There are a number of scenarios that could now happen.

Get a new deal

Boris Johnson says he is trying to negotiate a new deal with the EU. If that happened and MPs backed it before 31 October there would be no need for an extension.

David Frost, the prime minister’s lead Brexit negotiator, and Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay have been meeting EU officials. The prime minister himself has held meetings with the leaders of member states and with Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk.

The existing deal negotiated by former Prime Minister Theresa May and her government has been defeated in the House of Commons several times – and Mr Johnson has said it is dead.

The government wants a deal with the backstop removed. That’s the measure aimed at preventing any possibility of border posts and checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

There has been some discussion that a possible option could be to go for a Northern Ireland-only backstop. In other words, Northern Ireland would remain more closely tied to the EU than the rest of the UK.

Critics say that would effectively mean a border in the Irish Sea. When she was in office, Theresa May said that was something no British prime minister could accept.

The Irish border Brexit backstop

Try to get round the law designed to block no-deal Brexit

If there is no new deal, and the prime minister refuses to seek an extension there is likely to be a legal battle.

Cabinet ministers have said the government will obey the law, but the prime minister has said he will not ask for an extension. There has been some speculation about finding a loophole in the law or using some other device to avoid Mr Johnson himself having to ask for the extension.

For example, it’s been suggested that he could request an extension but at the same time tell the EU to ignore his request.

The idea of a loophole has been played down by former Supreme Court Justice Lord Sumption.

Could a no-deal Brexit still happen on 31 October?

No-deal Brexit on 31 October

The default position is still that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October at 23:00 GMT.

Even if the prime minister requests an extension there is no guarantee that the other EU countries would agree.

Leaving without a deal (or withdrawal agreement) means the UK would immediately exit the customs union and single market – arrangements designed to make trade easier.

Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. Others say the risks are exaggerated.

What is ‘no-deal Brexit’?

Early election

An early election is still widely expected but almost certainly after 31 October when Brexit is currently scheduled to happen.

That’s because it takes at least 25 working days for an election campaign to take place.

There could still be a Queen’s speech on 14 October in spite of the Supreme Court’s ruling. After that, the House of Commons might be asked again by the government to back an early general election. That requires a 2/3 majority in the House of Commons and so far MPs have been unprepared to agree.

An alternative route for the government would be a short new law specifying the date of an early general election – this would require only a simple majority and not need two-thirds of MPs.

There is another much more dramatic way – the prime minister could call a vote of no confidence in his own government.

What are the PM’s election options?

Vote of no confidence

At any point the opposition could call a vote of no confidence in the government.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has previously said he would table such a motion. There’s also been a suggestion that Boris Johnson could call a no confidence vote in his own government.

If more MPs vote for the no-confidence motion than against it, there would then be a 14-day window to see if the current government – or an alternative one with a new prime minister – could win a vote of confidence.

If no-one does then a general election would follow.

What is a vote of no confidence?

Cancel Brexit

There is also the legal option of cancelling Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50.

But clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating – so it’s only really possible to imagine this outcome after a change of government.

The Liberal Democrats have said that if they won a majority in the House of Commons they would revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit.