MLB playoffs: Our predictions from the wild-card games through the World Series
Which team will be the last one standing? Our MLB experts give their predictions on which teams will win each series…
The 2022 MLB playoffs begin Friday afternoon, debuting a new format with 12 teams hoping to raise this year’s World Series trophy.
The Dodgers — who enter October with MLB’s best record and a franchise record number of wins — look to add another title to prove their 2020 championship was no fluke. Meanwhile, the Braves have hopes of becoming baseball’s first repeat champions since the Yankees won three straight from 1998 to 2000. The Yankees, on the other hand, will try to return to their early-season form and make a run at the Fall Classic from the No. 2 seed in the American League.
Who will win each round? And which squad will be the last standing at the end of the postseason? We asked more than 30 of our MLB experts — from ESPN.com, TV, Stats & Information and more — to give us their predictions.
Below are their picks for wild-card winners (two teams will make it out of each league), division series winners, league championship series winners and World Series champion.
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American League Wild Card Series
ALWC: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 19
Tampa Bay Rays 12
While the Guardians are the favorite, you picked the Rays. How do they come out of wild-card weekend triumphant? The Rays might be the best organization at perennially outpunching its weight in terms of regular-season record and playoff runs, with execs spread all over the league to prove I’m not the only one who believes this. I normally give then the benefit of the doubt in a toss-up, but I think the Rays are a better team because of the superior depth of their rotation and lineup. That said, I see these risks in this pick: Guardians relievers James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase scare me if the Rays fall behind, and Rays ace Shane McClanahan hasn’t been that great of late. — Kiley McDaniel
ALWC: Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 18
Seattle Mariners 13
Our voters are almost split between the Mariners and Blue Jays. Why do you think Toronto will prevail? The Mariners-Blue Jays series is a jump ball. I’ll take the Blue Jays partly because they are at home. Rogers Centre is a loud place. “It will be crazy,” Blue Jays center fielder George Springer said. Only the Yankees scored more runs in the American League this year than the Jays. They are swinging it really well these days, especially Bo Bichette, who had 48 hits in September. Plus, the Jays have Alek Manoah going in Game 1. He has been one of the best pitchers in the league, totally fearless, totally oblivious to the pressure. The Mariners are really good, have won seven of 10 and can win this series, but home-field advantage means the Jays win in three. — Tim Kurkjian
National League Wild Card Series
NLWC: Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 19
Philadelphia Phillies 12
A fair number of our voters went with the Phillies. Why did you choose the Cardinals? In a short series, I’m going to trust their defense — especially in a park as spacious as Busch Stadium — and the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Albert Pujols to do what’s necessary to advance. The Phillies certainly seem to have a major advantage with their starting pitching, but I think the Cardinals have it, perhaps to a lesser extent, in the bullpen. And I think having all three games at home will be a major advantage. — Alden Gonzalez
NLWC: San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
New York Mets 27
San Diego Padres 4
Why do you think San Diego can pull of the wild-card upset against the 100-plus-win Mets? When it comes to the Mets, the conversation rightfully almost always starts with Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. But when the Mets were really rolling this year, it seemed Starling Marte was in the middle of everything good going on in their lineup. Now that there is a very real chance New York will have to start the postseason without their dynamic outfielder — and that could be enough of a difference to tip the scales in a best-of-three series. On the other hand, if the Mets do get through the opening weekend and Marte comes back playing like the star he is at any point this month, this is a Mets team that could still make a lot of noise this October. — Dan Mullen
American League Division Series
ALDS: Winner of Rays-Guardians vs. New York Yankees
New York Yankees 21
Cleveland Guardians 9
Tampa Bay Rays 1
A majority of our voters picked the Yankees. Why do you think the Guardians can win? There’s no doubt it would be an upset for the $68 million Guardians to knock off the $246 million Yankees. But upsets happen in October, and I like the way Cleveland’s pitching staff stacks up against the Yankees. Since around the first week of August, this has been arguably the best staff in baseball. Both the rotation and the bullpen have contributed to that, but the relievers in particular have gone to another level.
The Yankees have the firepower to simply club the Guardians into submission. But if games stay tight and terse into the late innings, the pendulum swings in the direction of Cleveland. You might think the Guardians’ AL Central-heavy schedule accounts for some of their lofty numbers. But here’s a stat: After the All-Star break, if you remove games against any AL Central team from the numbers, only the Dodgers and Astros had a better team ERA than Cleveland, and the Guardians were just a tick behind the Astros for No. 2. — Bradford Doolittle
ALDS: Winner of Mariners-Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Houston Astros 28
Seattle Mariners 2
Toronto Blue Jays 1
What makes the Astros the overwhelming favorite? These Astros are a little different from recent Houston powerhouses in terms of lineup depth and the dynamism of an offense that is still very good. But what really sets this version of Houston apart is the depth and versatility of a pitching staff ideally situated for the October tournament. The Astros have a classic big rotation three in Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr. They have excellent options when a fourth starter is needed in Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier.
Houston also has a quality group in the bullpen, including Ryan Pressly, Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, Rafael Montero, Will Smith and Bryan Abreu. Then they have the added layer of being able to use Urquidy, Garcia and, especially, Javier to fill in the gaps between as elite bridge guys. On top of all that, rookie Hunter Brown lurks as a huge possible X factor as a multi-inning bullpen option if they can make room for him on the playoff roster. It’s going to be hard to score on this group, especially as it’s backed by terrific defense. And with all that depth, no one has to be overworked during an unusually compressed playoff schedule. — Doolittle
National League Division Series
NLDS: Winner of Phillies-Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves 26
St. Louis Cardinals 4
Philadelphia Phillies 1
What makes the Braves the favorite here? As much as I would like to see the Phillies extend their season, the Braves are simply too strong. Frankly, they might be the favorite regardless of foe, including the Dodgers and Astros. The Phillies have two starting pitchers and a questionable bullpen. The Braves have no such concerns. — Eric Karabell
NLDS: Winner of Padres-Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 27
New York Mets 4
How can the Mets upset the Dodgers to advance? Short playoff series aren’t about depth — they’re about starting pitching, offensive heroes and bullpens. The Mets have just enough of all three to beat the Dodgers, in a short series. The Dodgers’ depth simply doesn’t come into play like it did over 162. This is no sure thing — nothing in the playoffs is — but the Mets have the right combination of players to pull off the upset. — Jesse Rogers
American League Championship Series
Houston Astros 25
Seattle Mariners 2
New York Yankees 3
Toronto Blue Jays 1
Houston is the overwhelming favorite here. How can the Yankees pull this off? The Yankees picked things back up after a weak August and should be getting key players back on the roster, such as Matt Carpenter, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta. This is an experienced team that has a lot of depth on both offense and the pitching staff. If the lineup can get hot like it did in the first half, this will be a tough team to stop, regardless of how up and down the second half of the season was. I try not to factor in regular-season success too much into postseason predictions because, as the Braves proved last year, it’s often about hitting your stride at the right time. The Yankees have all the pieces to do just that. — Joon Lee
National League Championship Series
Los Angeles Dodgers 15
Atlanta Braves 13
St. Louis Cardinals 2
New York Mets 1
Why did you pick the Braves to win the NLCS over the Dodgers? Choosing against a 111-win juggernaut that scored the most runs in baseball and allowed the fewest would seem to be a galaxy-brained maneuver, and perhaps it will be. But consider: Over the final 112 games of the season, the Dodgers went 78-34. And over the final 112 games of the season, the Braves went … 78-34. Los Angeles outscored opponents 573-351. Atlanta outscored opponents … 582-386. These are incredibly evenly matched teams, each with a dynamic, star-filled offense, ample starting-pitching options and solid defense.
The Braves, however, separate themselves in a vital area for playoff baseball: the bullpen. Yes, the Dodgers have the best relief ERA in the National League at 2.87 and a cornucopia of options from both sides: right-handers Evan Phillips, Chris Martin, Yency Almonte, Brusdar Graterol and Tommy Kahnle, left-handers Alex Vesia and David Price – all of whom theoretically could close in lieu of the deposed-but-still-around Craig Kimbrel. And if Dustin May and especially Blake Treinen return from injuries, they could be game-changers. But Atlanta’s array of relief options – closer Kenley Jansen, longtime-closer-elsewhere Raisel Iglesias, right-hander Collin McHugh, left-handers A.J. Minter, Dylan Lee and Tyler Matzek – are all, with the exception of Lee, proven veterans or playoff-tested. This is the sort of series that could come down to one inning a game, a true toss-up between two truly elite teams. There is bound to be a loser if they face off, but really we’re all winners for the possibility. — Jeff Passan
World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers 12
(Joon Lee, Brianna Williams, Tim Kurkjian, Ben Ward, Kyle Peterson, David Schoenfield, Dan Mullen, Bradford Doolittle, Alex Rodriguez, Enrique Rojas, Matt Marrone, Joe DeMartino)
Atlanta Braves 10
(Eduardo Perez, Phil Orlins, Paul Hembekides, Jeff Passan, Gregg Colli, Tristan Cockcroft, Buster Olney, Clinton Yates, Rachel Ullrich)
Houston Astros 8
(Eric Karabell, Michael Kay, Jesse Rogers, Kiley McDaniel, Alden Gonzalez, Liz Finny, Tim Keown, David Flemming)
New York Yankees 1
(Jeremy Willis)
The Dodgers were our most popular pick. Why did you go with Los Angeles here? I’m actually a little surprised the Dodgers were the most popular pick because it seems like everyone has been trying to find reasons to pick against them. Foremost: the bullpen and the lack of a defined closer. Well, the Dodgers finished with the second-best bullpen ERA in the majors (2.87). Also: Cody Bellinger didn’t have a good season, and Joey Gallo hit .162 with the Dodgers. Well, the Dodgers scored the most runs in the majors. And: Walker Buehler is injured, and Tony Gonsolin has pitched just two innings since August. They still have Julio Urias (2.16 ERA), Clayton Kershaw (2.28 ERA) and Tyler Anderson (2.57 ERA). They outscored their opponents by a whopping 334 runs — the highest differential since the 1939 Yankees. I’m not going to overthink this: The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. — Schoenfield
A Braves repeat was right behind the Dodgers. Why do you think they’ll pull it off? Because home runs are baseball’s most valuable currency, and the Braves have that market cornered. Since June 1, they own the best record in MLB (78-34) behind a plus-72 home run differential (highest in majors). Teams are 156-26 (.857 win percentage) in the postseason when outhomering their opponent since 2016. — Hembekides
I consider the Braves the most well-rounded team, especially on the pitching side, where their relief depth should provide a substantial advantage in a postseason short on rest days. The two biggest threats to them in my estimation, the Dodgers and Mets, have dealt with rotation injuries, a shaky ninth-inning picture (Dodgers) and the extra round throwing their rotation out of whack due to losing the division (Mets). The Braves seem better set up to withstand the 12-games-across-15-days whirlwind that is the division and championship rounds, and they’ll be the ones with the extra rest heading into the World Series. No one is set up better to mix and match on the pitching side. — Cockcroft
Make your case for why you think the Astros will win: Houston can win in so many different ways. That will come in handy over the course of three rounds of the postseason. The Astros are balanced and have experienced pitching and a solid bullpen. And unlike a year ago, they have Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers healthy for a full postseason. Ranking fourth in home runs while striking out the second fewest times in MLB says it all about the Astros’ offense. It’s loaded. They’re just better than everyone. Sometimes it’s that simple. — Rogers
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